Cleveland Guardians at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Will BrennanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Triston McKenziePitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Astros- Kyle TuckerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Justin VerlanderPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 10Kwan doubled to left, Arias scored, Rocchio to third.3–2
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 7Tucker homered to right center (422 feet).2–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 6Altuve singled to center, Dubón scored.2–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 32–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 5Kwan tripled to right, Rocchio scored.2–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 5Brennan homered to right center (377 feet).1–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 61%
- ML CLE +145 / HOU -170
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- HOU: Elo 55.0%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- HOU -154
- CLE +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.8 – 4.7 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +17 | CLE: Triston McKenzie: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · HOU: Justin Verlander: team allows 0.87 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +35 Elo | HOU 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 56.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.615th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 5.326th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.6 | Margin | −0.721st of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 6th of 3011–6 | Road vs home | 5–926th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–7 | 9–18 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 9–5 | 5–16 |
| Underdog | 13–2 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 16–11–2 | 9–15–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 1–7–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 2–5 HOU in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.