New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Gleyber TorresBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 6 K
Orioles- Ryan MountcastleBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle BradishPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Torres homered to center (418 feet).2–7
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 21–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–7
- 5Mateo hit sacrifice fly to left, Westburg scored.1–7
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–7
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging1–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 5Westburg tripled to center, Mountcastle scored and Santander scored.1–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 5Mountcastle singled to right, Rutschman scored.1–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 4McKenna homered to center (403 feet).1–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 4Mateo homered to left center (425 feet).1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Mountcastle homered to center (405 feet).1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 3Rizzo singled to left, Volpe scored, Rizzo to second.1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 51%
- ML NYY -105 / BAL -115
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.7 pts
- BAL: Elo 58.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- BAL -104
- NYY +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.2 – 4.3 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +15 | NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BAL: Kyle Bradish: team allows 0.75 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +62 Elo | BAL 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.23rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.010th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+1.3 | Margin | +1.27th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 9th of 3012–7 | Road vs home | 11–77th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–17 | 18–12 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–14 | 13–11 |
| Underdog | 9–3 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders | 12–19–1 | 16–12–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 7–9 BAL in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 16.