New York Yankees at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Alex VerdugoBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Brewers- Rhys HoskinsBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Joe RossPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ortiz doubled to left, Sánchez scored.15–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play15–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking15–3
- 9Sánchez doubled to center, Bauers scored.15–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play15–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking15–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 115–2
- 9Stanton homered to center (392 feet), Trammell scored and Jones scored.15–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play15–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 315–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging15–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 215–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 115–1
- 9Verdugo hit sacrifice fly to left, Volpe scored.12–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play12–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 312–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 212–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul12–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 112–1
- 6Rizzo homered to right (385 feet), Verdugo scored.11–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play11–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Automatic Ball - PitchTimerViolation-Pitcher 39–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 29–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 19–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging9–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul9–1
- 6Judge homered to center (417 feet), Soto scored.9–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul9–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 27–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 17–1
- 5Cabrera singled to right, Rizzo scored, Cabrera to second, Torres to third.7–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 3Torres doubled to center, Judge scored, Rizzo scored and Stanton scored.6–1
- 3Pitch 8 : Ball In Play6–1
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball 23–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 13–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 51%
- ML NYY -115 / MIL -105
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.4 pts
- NYY: Elo 44.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- NYY -104
- MIL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.3 – 4.2 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −15 | NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIL: Joe Ross: team allows 0.76 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +37 Elo | MIL 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.45th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 3.97th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +1.44th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 8th of 309–5 | Road vs home | 5–412th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–15 | 14–11 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–13 | 3–6 |
| Underdog | 7–2 | 11–5 |
| Overs–unders | 10–16–1 | 15–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 1–3 MIL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.