Oakland Athletics at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Joe BoylePitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Clarke SchmidtPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Verdugo hit sacrifice fly to left, Stanton scored.3–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 6Soto homered to center (416 feet).3–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–6
- 6Rooker homered to left (418 feet), Noda scored and Nevin scored.3–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–5
- 5Rizzo homered to right center (417 feet).0–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 4Soto hit sacrifice fly to center, Volpe scored.0–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 4Volpe tripled to center, Wells scored.0–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul0–2
- 1Judge homered to right (361 feet), Soto scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 66%
- ML OAK +180 / NYY -222
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- NYY: Elo 64.8%, market 65.9%
- Fair odds
- NYY -193
- OAK +193 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 3.5 – 5.0 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1431 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +3 | OAK: Joe Boyle: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · NYY: Clarke Schmidt: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +106 Elo | NYY 64.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 67.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 67.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 65.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 302.8 | Runs scored | 4.314th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.53rd of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.5 | Margin | +0.811th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 21st of 305–6 | Road vs home | 7–46th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–12 | 11–13 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 4–11 |
| Underdog | 12–10 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders | 12–12 | 8–15–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 2–6 NYY in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.