Oakland Athletics at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Zack GelofBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- JP SearsPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Yankees- Anthony VolpeBatting1-4
- Carlos RodonPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Gelof homered to right center (377 feet), Toro scored.2–0
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 69%
- ML OAK +210 / NYY -260
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- NYY: Elo 63.1%, market 69.1%
- Fair odds
- NYY -224
- OAK +224 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 3.4 – 5.1 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1429 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −6 | OAK: JP Sears: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +93 Elo | NYY 63.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 67.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 67.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 69.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 302.9 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.63rd of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.7 | Margin | +1.08th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–5 | Road vs home | 6–33rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–12 | 11–11 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 4–9 |
| Underdog | 10–10 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders | 12–10 | 8–13–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 1–5 NYY in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.