Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting2-5
- Zach EflinPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Yankees- Juan SotoBatting2-4
- Nestor CortesPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 10Rortvedt singled to left, Caballero scored.2–0
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 10Caballero doubled to center, Palacios scored.1–0
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 55%
- ML TB +115 / NYY -135
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- NYY: Elo 51.1%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -124
- TB +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.8 – 4.2 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −2 | TB: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Nestor Cortes: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +8 Elo | NYY 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.813th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.63rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.9 | Margin | +1.17th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 9th of 304–3 | Road vs home | 5–23rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–14 | 11–9 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–12 | 4–7 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders | 12–9 | 7–12–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 8–6 NYY in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 14.