Los Angeles Angels at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Mickey MoniakBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jose SorianoPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Rays- Richie PalaciosBatting2-6, 1 RBI
- Aaron CivalePitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 13Rosario reached on infield single to third, Palacios scored, Ramírez to second, Paredes to third.6–7
- 13Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–7
- 13Pitch 1 : Ball 16–6
- 13Palacios doubled to right, Pinto scored.6–6
- 13Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–6
- 13Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–5
- 13Neto singled to left, Rengifo scored.6–5
- 13Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–5
- 13Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging5–5
- 13Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–5
- 13Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 11Ramírez grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Palacios scored, Paredes out at second.5–5
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–5
- 11Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–4
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 11Ward hit sacrifice fly to center, Adell scored.5–4
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–4
- 10Siri scored on error, Díaz safe at first on throwing error by pitcher Cisnero, Díaz safe at second on error.4–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–4
- 10Hicks scored on Fairbanks wild pitch.4–3
- 10Hicks scored on Fairbanks wild pitch.4–3
- 9Caballero tripled to right, Ramírez scored and Rosario scored.3–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 4Ramírez grounded out to third, Arozarena scored, Palacios to second.3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4O'Hoppe homered to left center (395 feet).3–0
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 32–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 4Moniak homered to center (428 feet), Sanó scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 58%
- ML LAA +130 / TB -155
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- TB: Elo 57.3%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- TB -140
- LAA +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.6 – 4.4 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −5 | LAA: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · TB: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +51 Elo | TB 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 55.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 5.226th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −1.125th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 14th of 306–4 | Road vs home | 5–617th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–8 | 7–10 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–5 | 5–9 |
| Underdog | 8–3 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 8–8 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 4–6 TB in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.