Los Angeles Angels at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Mike TroutBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Reid DetmersPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Rays- Amed RosarioBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ward singled to right, Rendon scored, Ward to second, Trout to third.5–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–4
- 9Rendon singled to left, Adell scored, Rendon to second, Neto thrown out at home.4–4
- 9Pitch 8 : Ball In Play4–4
- 9Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 34–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 23–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 13–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 8Rosario homered to left center (398 feet), Paredes scored.3–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 6Arozarena singled to right, Díaz scored, Ramírez to third.3–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 6Rengifo doubled to center, O'Hoppe scored.3–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 5Rendon singled to left, Schanuel scored.2–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 12–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 2Siri hit sacrifice fly to center, Rosario scored, Caballero to third.1–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 31–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Trout homered to center (400 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 52%
- ML LAA +100 / TB -120
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.3 pts
- TB: Elo 57.4%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- TB -109
- LAA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.2 – 4.3 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | +1 | LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 0.83 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Zack Littell: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +52 Elo | TB 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 5.327th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.924th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 16th of 306–5 | Road vs home | 6–612th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–8 | 7–11 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–5 | 5–10 |
| Underdog | 9–3 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 9–8 | 11–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 4–7 TB in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.