Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Richie PalaciosBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler AlexanderPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Yankees- Juan SotoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Clarke SchmidtPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Paredes singled to right, Arozarena scored and Palacios scored.3–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 7Soto homered to right (409 feet), Cabrera scored and Volpe scored.1–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 7Volpe singled to center, Trevino scored, Cabrera to second.1–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 7Verdugo scored on error, Cabrera safe at first on fielding error by first baseman Díaz, Trevino safe at third on error.1–1
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–1
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 31–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 6Palacios homered to right center (394 feet).1–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 62%
- ML TB +155 / NYY -185
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.2 pts
- NYY: Elo 50.2%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -166
- TB +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.7 – 4.8 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +2 | TB: Tyler Alexander: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · NYY: Clarke Schmidt: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +1 Elo | NYY 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.713th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.73rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.8 | Margin | +1.16th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 7th of 304–2 | Road vs home | 4–23rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–13 | 10–9 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–12 | 3–7 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders | 12–8 | 7–11–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 8–5 NYY in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 13.