Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Amed RosarioBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Aaron CivalePitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Yankees- Alex VerdugoBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Luis GilPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Mead singled to center, Rosario scored.4–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 13–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–5
- 8Rosario doubled to center, Paredes scored and Palacios scored.3–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–5
- 5Cabrera singled to center, Verdugo scored, Trevino to third.1–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–5
- 5Trevino singled to center, Torres scored, Verdugo to second.1–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Verdugo singled to right, Rizzo scored and Stanton scored, Torres to third.1–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Caballero scored on a balk.1–1
- 3Caballero scored on a balk.1–1
- 1Rizzo singled to center, Soto scored, Stanton to second.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 53%
- ML TB +105 / NYY -125
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- NYY: Elo 52.0%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NYY -114
- TB +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.9 – 4.1 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +8 | TB: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYY: Luis Gil: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +14 Elo | NYY 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 55.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.63rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.8 | Margin | +1.09th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 9th of 305–3 | Road vs home | 5–36th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–14 | 11–10 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–12 | 4–8 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders | 12–10 | 7–13–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 9–6 NYY in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 15.