Oakland Athletics at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Lawrence ButlerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Paul BlackburnPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Yankees- Anthony RizzoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Marcus StromanPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 4Butler homered to right center (362 feet).3–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 12–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 2Langeliers homered to center (414 feet).2–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 1Rizzo homered to right center (385 feet), Stanton scored.1–4
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–4
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball 31–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 21–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 1Stanton doubled to center, Judge scored and Soto scored.1–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Brown doubled to right, Rooker scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 65%
- ML OAK +175 / NYY -210
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- NYY: Elo 61.9%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- NYY -186
- OAK +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 3.3 – 4.7 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1432 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +2 | OAK: Paul Blackburn: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYY: Marcus Stroman: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +84 Elo | NYY 61.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 64.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 64.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 302.8 | Runs scored | 4.313th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.53rd of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.5 | Margin | +0.88th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 16th of 305–5 | Road vs home | 6–48th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–12 | 11–12 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 4–10 |
| Underdog | 11–10 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders | 12–11 | 8–14–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 2–5 NYY in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.