Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Gary SanchezBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Pirates- Joey BartBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Dunn singled to right, Adames scored, Bauers to second.7–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 27–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–5
- 8Sánchez homered to right (371 feet), Perkins scored.6–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging6–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–5
- 5Triolo singled to right, Suwinski scored.4–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–5
- 5Suwinski doubled to center, Bart scored.4–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 5Hoskins doubled to left, Contreras scored.4–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging4–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 24–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 3Hoskins singled to right, Contreras scored, Bauers to second.3–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 3Bauers singled to right, Frelick scored, Contreras to third.2–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 1Bart homered to center (419 feet), Reynolds scored and Tellez scored.1–3
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 21–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 1Contreras homered to left center (448 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 57%
- ML MIL -145 / PIT +125
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- MIL: Elo 55.4%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- MIL -133
- PIT +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.6 – 2.9 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +9 | MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.67 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +38 Elo | MIL 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.217th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.4 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3011–4 | Road vs home | 5–619th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–11 | 12–13 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 2–6 | 3–8 |
| Underdog | 10–5 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 13–10 | 12–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 9–7 PIT in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 16.