Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Bryse WilsonPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis OrtizPitching2.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 3Reynolds homered to right center (402 feet), Joe scored.3–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 33–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 3Perkins walked, Contreras scored, Hoskins to second, Adames to third.3–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 43–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 33–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3Hoskins hit by pitch, Turang scored, Adames to second, Contreras to third.2–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 32–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 3Contreras singled to center, Frelick scored, Turang to third.1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 52%
- ML MIL +100 / PIT -120
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 42%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.1 pts
- PIT: Elo 42.0%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- PIT -109
- MIL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.4 – 4.6 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −15 | MIL: Bryse Wilson: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · PIT: Josh Fleming: team allows 0.75 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +56 Elo | MIL 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.5 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 5th of 3010–4 | Road vs home | 5–514th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–11 | 12–12 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–6 | 3–7 |
| Underdog | 9–5 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 13–9 | 12–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 8–7 PIT in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 15.