Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Rhys HoskinsBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Joe RossPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Pirates- Andrew McCutchenBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jared JonesPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Hoskins grounded out to third, Contreras scored, Miller to second, Adames to third.2–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 6Cruz singled to left, Joe scored and Suwinski scored.1–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 6Hayes scored on error, Suwinski safe at first on throwing error by first baseman Bauers, Joe safe at third on error.1–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Hoskins homered to left center (413 feet).1–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 30–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1McCutchen homered to center (414 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 58%
- ML MIL +130 / PIT -155
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.3 pts
- PIT: Elo 48.0%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- PIT -140
- MIL +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.4 – 4.1 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | +6 | MIL: Joe Ross: team allows 0.87 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · PIT: Jared Jones: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +14 Elo | MIL 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.7 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.8 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 1st of 3010–2 | Road vs home | 3–520th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–10 | 11–11 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–6 | 2–6 |
| Underdog | 8–4 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 13–7 | 12–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 8–5 PIT in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 13.