New York Yankees at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Trent GrishamBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Luis GilPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Brewers- Joey OrtizBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 11Ortiz singled to left, Miller scored.6–7
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–7
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball 16–6
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–6
- 10Adames singled to center, Contreras scored.6–6
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–6
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 36–6
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging6–6
- 10Pitch 2 : Automatic Ball - PitchTimerViolation-Pitcher 26–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 16–6
- 10Stanton doubled to left, Trevino scored.6–5
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–5
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 35–5
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–5
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 25–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 6Ortiz hit sacrifice fly to left, Sánchez scored.5–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 15–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 4Grisham homered to right (404 feet), Cabrera scored and Wells scored.5–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking2–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 3Perkins homered to right center (391 feet), Hoskins scored.2–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 2Ortiz homered to left (406 feet), Turang scored.2–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Verdugo homered to right (384 feet).2–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 55%
- ML NYY -135 / MIL +115
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.6 pts
- NYY: Elo 43.6%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -124
- MIL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.5 – 4.0 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +4 | NYY: Luis Gil: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · MIL: Colin Rea: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +45 Elo | MIL 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.36th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 3.86th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +1.54th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 6th of 309–4 | Road vs home | 4–414th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–14 | 13–11 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–12 | 3–6 |
| Underdog | 7–2 | 10–5 |
| Overs–unders | 9–16–1 | 14–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 1–2 MIL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.