Oakland Athletics at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Tyler NevinBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Alex WoodPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Yankees- Jose TrevinoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nestor CortesPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 3Nevin homered to right (348 feet), Hernaiz scored.3–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 33–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 3Allen homered to left (360 feet).1–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 2Trevino homered to right (325 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 71%
- ML OAK +230 / NYY -280
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- NYY: Elo 64.7%, market 70.9%
- Fair odds
- NYY -243
- OAK +243 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 2.8 – 4.7 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1429 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +1 | OAK: Alex Wood: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · NYY: Nestor Cortes: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +106 Elo | NYY 64.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 66.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 66.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 70.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 302.8 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.53rd of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.6 | Margin | +1.09th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 22nd of 305–7 | Road vs home | 8–44th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–13 | 12–13 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 5–11 |
| Underdog | 12–11 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders | 13–12 | 9–15–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 2–7 NYY in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.