New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Gleyber TorresBatting2-4
- Clarke SchmidtPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Grayson RodriguezPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Henderson scored on error, Santander safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Volpe, Rutschman to second.0–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Henderson homered to right (410 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 54%
- ML NYY +110 / BAL -130
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- BAL: Elo 54.9%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -119
- NYY +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.6 – 4.9 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −6 | NYY: Clarke Schmidt: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Grayson Rodriguez: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +34 Elo | BAL 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 5.62nd of 30 |
| 4th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.316th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.5 | Margin | +1.36th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 5th of 3011–5 | Road vs home | 9–67th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–15 | 16–11 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–13 | 12–10 |
| Underdog | 8–2 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 12–16–1 | 16–9–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 6–7 BAL in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 13.