Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Grayson RodriguezPitching4.1 IP, 7 ER, 7 K
Angels- Mike TroutBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Griffin CanningPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Henderson homered to right (414 feet).4–7
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–7
- 5O'Hearn doubled to left, Holliday scored and Rutschman scored.3–7
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–7
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 21–7
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–7
- 5Henderson hit sacrifice fly to left, Westburg scored.1–7
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–7
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–7
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–7
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 20–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–7
- 4Schanuel singled to right, Neto scored.0–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 4Neto doubled to left, Rengifo scored.0–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–6
- 3Adell singled to center, O'Hoppe scored.0–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–5
- 3O'Hoppe doubled to left, Ward scored.0–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 2Neto singled to right, Rengifo scored, Neto to second.0–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 2Rengifo doubled to right, Adell scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Trout homered to center (392 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 57%
- ML BAL -150 / LAA +125
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- BAL: Elo 58.8%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- BAL -135
- LAA +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.6 – 3.9 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −8 | BAL: Grayson Rodriguez: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAA: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +62 Elo | BAL 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 56.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.7 | Runs scored | 4.118th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+1.4 | Margin | −0.823rd of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Road vs home | 2–528th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–7 | 11–12 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–6 | 0–6 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 11–6 |
| Overs–unders | 13–7–2 | 11–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 8–3 LAA in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.