Minnesota Twins at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Austin MartinBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Pablo LopezPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Albert SuarezPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Mullins homered to right (379 feet), Mountcastle scored.2–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 7Santander homered to left center (402 feet).2–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 7Farmer singled to left, Martin scored.2–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 7Martin singled to left, Margot scored, Martin to second.1–1
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 30–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Henderson homered to right center (416 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 52%
- ML MIN +100 / BAL -120
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- BAL: Elo 54.6%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- BAL -109
- MIN +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.2 – 4.3 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −9 | MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Albert Suarez (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +32 Elo | BAL 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 5.93rd of 30 |
| 17th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−1.1 | Margin | +1.55th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 19th of 305–6 | Road vs home | 7–47th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–8 | 11–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 9–5 |
| Underdog | 5–5 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 7–9 | 11–4–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–1–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 2–6 BAL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.