Minnesota Twins at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Jose MirandaBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Louis VarlandPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Orioles- Cedric MullinsBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cole IrvinPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Jeffers doubled to left, Julien scored and Martin scored.4–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–7
- 6Henderson homered to right center (411 feet).2–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–6
- 5Mullins homered to right (345 feet), Westburg scored.2–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 12–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 4Miranda singled to left, Buxton scored.2–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 11–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 3Mullins hit sacrifice fly to center, Mountcastle scored.1–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 11–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 3O'Hearn homered to center (435 feet).1–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 31–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 2Miranda homered to left center (411 feet).1–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 1Westburg doubled to center, Rutschman scored and O'Hearn scored, Mountcastle to third.0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 54%
- ML MIN +110 / BAL -130
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- BAL: Elo 56.1%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -119
- MIN +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.3 – 4.7 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +4 | MIN: Louis Varland: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · BAL: Cole Irvin: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +43 Elo | BAL 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 56.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 5.55th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.515th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.99th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–4 | Road vs home | 5–410th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–6 | 9–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 7–5 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–9 | 9–4–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–2–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 2–4 BAL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 6.