Minnesota Twins at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Ryan JeffersBatting2-4
- Chris PaddackPitching5.1 IP, 9 ER, 2 K
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Grayson RodriguezPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Miranda singled to center, Camargo scored, Larnach to second.3–11
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–11
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–11
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–11
- 8O'Hearn homered to center (395 feet), Rutschman scored.2–11
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–11
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 22–9
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–9
- 6Santander singled to left, Rutschman scored.2–9
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–8
- 6Kirilloff singled to right, Jeffers scored.2–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–8
- 4Cowser singled to center, Santander scored.1–8
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–8
- 4Buxton tripled to left, Kirilloff scored.1–7
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–7
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–7
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–7
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 20–7
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–7
- 3Henderson singled to left, Holliday scored, Henderson to second, McCann to third.0–7
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–7
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–6
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–6
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 3Westburg homered to left center (404 feet), Mullins scored.0–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–6
- 3Cowser grounded out to shortstop, O'Hearn scored, Mullins to third.0–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 2Henderson homered to right (373 feet), McCann scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 61%
- ML MIN +145 / BAL -170
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.6 pts
- BAL: Elo 54.1%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- BAL -154
- MIN +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.8 – 4.7 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −4 | MIN: Chris Paddack: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · BAL: Grayson Rodriguez: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +29 Elo | BAL 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 57.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 5.64th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +1.18th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 16th of 305–5 | Road vs home | 6–47th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–7 | 10–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 8–5 |
| Underdog | 5–4 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 6–9 | 10–4–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 2–5 BAL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.