Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- James McCannBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Albert SuarezPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Angels- Jo AdellBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Reid DetmersPitching7.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Schanuel singled to right, O'Hoppe scored.4–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 34–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 24–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking4–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–1
- 7Adell homered to right center (393 feet).4–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 7Cowser homered to center (394 feet).4–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 5Rutschman doubled to left, Henderson scored.3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Rutschman singled to center, Mateo scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2McCann homered to left (377 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 50%
- ML BAL -110 / LAA -110
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- LAA: Elo 45.1%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- LAA -100
- BAL -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.3 – 4.3 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +17 | BAL: Albert Suarez: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 0.83 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +34 Elo | BAL 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.8 | Runs scored | 4.217th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.4 | Margin | −0.822nd of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–3 | Road vs home | 2–423rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–7 | 11–11 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–6 | 0–5 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 11–6 |
| Overs–unders | 13–6–2 | 11–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 7–3 LAA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.