Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Adley RutschmanBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Royals- MJ MelendezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Alec MarshPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Melendez homered to right center (424 feet), Pasquantino scored and Perez scored.4–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–9
- 7Rutschman homered to left center (398 feet), Mullins scored, Hays scored and Westburg scored.4–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 6Renfroe doubled to center, Massey scored and Velázquez scored.0–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 6Massey singled to right, Melendez scored and Pasquantino scored, Velázquez to third.0–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 6Melendez singled to right, Witt Jr. scored, Pasquantino to second.0–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 4Pasquantino homered to right (397 feet).0–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 54%
- ML BAL -130 / KC +110
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.4 pts
- BAL: Elo 57.7%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -119
- KC +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.7 – 4.3 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −14 | BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Alec Marsh: team allows 0.71 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +54 Elo | BAL 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.8 | Runs scored | 4.811th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 2.71st of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.5 | Margin | +2.12nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 7th of 304–2 | Road vs home | 8–22nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–6 | 13–6 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 10–5 | 5–2 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders | 11–5–2 | 6–12–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2–1 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 7–2 KC in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.