Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
White Sox- Andrew BenintendiBatting2-4
- Nick NastriniPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 5Isbel singled to left, Loftin scored, Frazier to second.2–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 4Pasquantino homered to right center (421 feet).1–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- KC 62%
- ML KC -180 / CHW +150
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.9 pts
- KC: Elo 54.7%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- KC -161
- CHW +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.5 – 3.5 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1430 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | +6 | KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.82 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Nick Nastrini (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | KC +33 Elo | KC 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 2.330th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.0 | Runs allowed | 5.728th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+2.3 | Margin | −3.430th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 24th of 302–4 | Road vs home | 1–729th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–5 | 7–8 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | — |
| Underdog | 8–4 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders | 6–9–1 | 6–8–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 11–6 CHW in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 17.