Los Angeles Angels at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Jo AdellBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Nick LodoloPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8De La Cruz homered to left (354 feet), Stephenson scored and Martini scored.1–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 21–7
- 8Steer scored on Cisnero wild pitch, Martini to second, Stephenson to third.1–4
- 8Steer scored on Cisnero wild pitch, Martini to second on wild pitch by Cisnero, Stephenson to third on wild pitch by Cisnero.1–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 8Martini hit by pitch, India scored, Stephenson to second, Steer to third.1–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 6Stephenson homered to left (433 feet).1–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Adell singled to left, Rengifo scored.1–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2De La Cruz scored on throwing error by catcher O'Hoppe.0–1
- 2De La Cruz scored on throwing error by catcher O'Hoppe.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 56%
- ML LAA +120 / CIN -140
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- CIN: Elo 56.1%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- CIN -128
- LAA +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.5 – 5.0 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +10 | LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +43 Elo | CIN 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.37th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.614th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 16th of 307–6 | Road vs home | 4–520th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–8 | 8–10 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–5 | 6–6 |
| Underdog | 11–3 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders | 10–9 | 12–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 0–3 CIN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.