Los Angeles Angels at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Miguel SanoBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Patrick SandovalPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 6 K
Reds- Tyler StephensonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Graham AshcraftPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Rengifo grounded out to first, Drury scored.5–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 25–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 15–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–7
- 6Sanó homered to right center (391 feet), Ward scored.4–7
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–7
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging4–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 34–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 24–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–7
- 5De La Cruz walked, Steer scored, Candelario to second, Fairchild to third.2–7
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 42–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 32–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–7
- 5Fairchild singled to left, India scored, Steer to second.2–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–6
- 1Stephenson homered to right (355 feet), Fairchild scored, Candelario scored and De La Cruz scored.2–5
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–5
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 1Fairchild doubled to left, Steer scored.2–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Drury grounded out to shortstop, Trout scored, Sanó to third.2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Sanó doubled to center, Neto scored, Trout to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 54%
- ML LAA +110 / CIN -130
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- CIN: Elo 56.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- CIN -119
- LAA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.6 – 4.9 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −11 | LAA: Patrick Sandoval: team allows 0.62 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Graham Ashcraft: team allows 0.57 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +42 Elo | CIN 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.47th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.515th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.810th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 15th of 307–7 | Road vs home | 5–513th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–9 | 9–10 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–5 | 7–6 |
| Underdog | 11–4 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders | 10–10 | 12–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 0–4 CIN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.