Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Jordan WestburgBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cole IrvinPitching6.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting1-4
- Seth LugoPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Urías reached on infield single to shortstop, Henderson scored, Rutschman to second.5–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–0
- 6Westburg walked, Mountcastle scored, Cowser to second, Mullins to third.4–0
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball 44–0
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 33–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 23–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 6Mountcastle doubled to left, Santander scored.3–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Westburg homered to center (433 feet).2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3Cowser homered to right center (430 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 50%
- ML BAL -110 / KC -110
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- KC: Elo 45.6%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- KC -100
- BAL -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.5 – 4.5 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +19 | BAL: Cole Irvin: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.95 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +30 Elo | BAL 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 50.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.8 | Runs scored | 5.18th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 3.11st of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.2 | Margin | +2.02nd of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 9th of 305–3 | Road vs home | 9–32nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–7 | 14–7 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 11–6 | 5–2 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 13–5–2 | 8–12–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 8–3 KC in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.