Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Anthony SantanderBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Corbin BurnesPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting3-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Matt SauerPitching2.1 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Santander doubled to left, Mountcastle scored.9–7
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball In Play9–7
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul9–7
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul8–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul8–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul8–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 19–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–7
- 7Perez singled to left, Garcia scored and Witt Jr. scored, Pasquantino to second.8–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 18–5
- 7Garcia singled to left, Frazier scored, Isbel thrown out at third.8–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul8–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 18–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–4
- 7Velázquez scored on Ramírez wild pitch, Frazier to third on wild pitch by Ramírez.8–4
- 7Velázquez scored on Ramírez wild pitch, Frazier to third on wild pitch by Ramírez.8–4
- 7Hays scored, Mateo to third on passed ball by Perez.8–3
- 7Hays scored, Mateo to third on passed ball by Perez.8–3
- 6Perez homered to left (395 feet), Garcia scored and Pasquantino scored.7–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 17–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul7–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–0
- 2Westburg singled to center, Mountcastle scored and Santander scored.7–0
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play7–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 35–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging5–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 25–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 2Santander doubled to left, Rutschman scored, Mountcastle to third.5–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 2Mountcastle reached on infield single to second, Henderson scored, Rutschman to second.4–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 52%
- ML BAL -120 / KC +100
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.6 pts
- BAL: Elo 56.7%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- BAL -109
- KC +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.1 – 3.9 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +5 | BAL: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Cole Ragans: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +47 Elo | BAL 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 55.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.7 | Runs scored | 5.09th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 2.81st of 30 |
| 6th of 30+1.2 | Margin | +2.32nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 10th of 304–3 | Road vs home | 9–21st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–7 | 14–6 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 10–6 | 5–2 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 9–4 |
| Overs–unders | 12–5–2 | 7–12–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–1–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 7–3 KC in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.