Los Angeles Angels at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Luis RengifoBatting2-3
- Jose SorianoPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Reds- Christian Encarnacion-StrandBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Brent SuterPitching3.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 6Candelario tripled to right, Encarnacion-Strand scored.0–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 6Encarnacion-Strand doubled to center, Martini scored and De La Cruz scored.0–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 53%
- ML LAA +105 / CIN -125
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- CIN: Elo 53.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CIN -114
- LAA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.4 – 4.6 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −13 | LAA: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · CIN: Frankie Montas: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +27 Elo | CIN 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.57th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.520th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.910th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 20th of 307–8 | Road vs home | 6–510th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–10 | 10–10 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–5 | 8–6 |
| Underdog | 11–5 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders | 11–10 | 13–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 0–5 CIN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.