Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting3-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Angels- Taylor WardBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9O'Hoppe grounded out to second, Adrianza scored.6–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging6–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 26–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 16–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–4
- 8Neto homered to left (382 feet).6–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–4
- 6Ward homered to center (387 feet), Schanuel scored.6–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–3
- 6Trout homered to left (417 feet).6–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 26–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 6Mountcastle grounded into double play, third to second to first, Henderson scored, Rutschman out at second.6–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 15–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 6Henderson singled to center, Cowser scored and Mateo scored.5–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 6Mateo hit a ground rule double, McCann scored, Cowser to third.3–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul2–0
- 5Rutschman singled to left, Henderson scored.2–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3Henderson homered to right center (379 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 54%
- ML BAL -130 / LAA +110
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- BAL: Elo 55.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -119
- LAA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.7 – 4.3 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | 0 | BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.76 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +35 Elo | BAL 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 55.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.7 | Runs scored | 4.217th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+1.2 | Margin | −0.721st of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 7th of 307–4 | Road vs home | 3–523rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–8 | 12–12 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–7 | 0–6 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 12–6 |
| Overs–unders | 14–7–2 | 12–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 8–4 LAA in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 12.