Oakland Athletics at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Kyle McCannBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Paul BlackburnPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Orioles- Ryan MountcastleBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Albert SuarezPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9McCann homered to right center (388 feet), Hernaiz scored.7–6
- 9Pitch 9 : Ball In Play7–6
- 9Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul5–6
- 9Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul5–6
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–6
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 35–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking5–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 25–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–6
- 7Nevin homered to left center (407 feet).5–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–6
- 4Urías homered to right center (394 feet).4–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–6
- 3Mountcastle homered to center (424 feet), O'Hearn scored.4–5
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–5
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 24–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 14–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
- 3Rutschman homered to center (387 feet).4–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 24–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 3Rooker singled to center, Nevin scored and Bleday scored, Rooker to second.4–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 3Bleday doubled to right, Butler scored, Nevin to third.2–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 31–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 2Cowser doubled to left, Mullins scored.1–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Mullins grounded into fielder's choice to second, Santander scored, Mountcastle out at second.1–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 65%
- ML OAK +170 / BAL -210
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- BAL: Elo 66.8%, market 64.7%
- Fair odds
- BAL -183
- OAK +183 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 3.6 – 4.9 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1431 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +4 | OAK: Paul Blackburn: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BAL: Albert Suarez: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +122 Elo | BAL 66.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 62.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 63.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 64.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 302.8 | Runs scored | 5.62nd of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.6 | Margin | +1.35th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 20th of 307–8 | Road vs home | 9–55th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–14 | 16–10 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 12–9 |
| Underdog | 14–12 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 13–15 | 15–9–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 2–7 BAL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.