Oakland Athletics at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Esteury RuizBatting1-4
- JP SearsPitching6.1 IP, 7 ER, 8 K
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cole IrvinPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Henderson homered to right (367 feet), Mateo scored.0–7
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball In Play0–7
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball 20–5
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 10–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 5Mountcastle homered to left (398 feet).0–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–5
- 5Rutschman homered to left center (416 feet).0–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 4McCann singled to right, Westburg scored, Mullins to third.0–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Westburg singled to left, Santander scored.0–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 4Santander doubled to left, Henderson scored.0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 64%
- ML OAK +170 / BAL -200
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.6 pts
- BAL: Elo 67.8%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -180
- OAK +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 3.6 – 4.9 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1433 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +10 | OAK: JP Sears: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Cole Irvin: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +130 Elo | BAL 67.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 66.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 66.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 302.9 | Runs scored | 5.53rd of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.419th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +1.17th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 16th of 307–7 | Road vs home | 8–56th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–13 | 15–10 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 11–9 |
| Underdog | 14–11 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 13–14 | 15–8–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 2–6 BAL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.