New York Yankees at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Marcus StromanPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Brewers- Jake BauersBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tobias MyersPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rizzo homered to center (391 feet), Trammell scored.15–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play15–5
- 7Trevino hit sacrifice fly to right, Rizzo scored.13–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play13–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking12–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking12–5
- 7Cabrera singled to right, Stanton scored, Rizzo to third.12–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play12–5
- 6Perkins walked, Contreras scored, Sánchez to second, Bauers to third.11–5
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 411–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 311–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging11–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 211–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 111–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking11–4
- 6Judge singled to left, Volpe scored and Soto scored.11–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 19–4
- 6Soto singled to right, Trevino scored, Volpe to second.9–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–4
- 6Cabrera scored, Trevino to second on wild pitch by Peguero.8–4
- 6Cabrera scored on Peguero wild pitch, Trevino to second on wild pitch by Peguero.8–4
- 6Trevino singled to center, Rizzo scored and Torres scored, Cabrera to third.7–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 6Torres singled to center, Verdugo scored, Rizzo to second.5–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 24–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 5Bauers homered to right (387 feet), Contreras scored and Adames scored.4–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 34–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 24–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 5Adames doubled to right, Frelick scored, Contreras to third.4–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 14–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 54%
- ML NYY -130 / MIL +110
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.0 pts
- NYY: Elo 44.3%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -119
- MIL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.4 – 4.1 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +2 | NYY: Marcus Stroman: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Tobias Myers: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +40 Elo | MIL 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.34th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+1.2 | Margin | +0.99th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 6th of 3010–5 | Road vs home | 5–514th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–15 | 14–12 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–13 | 3–7 |
| Underdog | 8–2 | 11–5 |
| Overs–unders | 11–16–1 | 16–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 2–3 MIL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.