New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Juan SotoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nestor CortesPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Orioles- Adley RutschmanBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Soto homered to right center (447 feet).2–4
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking1–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 31–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 4Rutschman singled to center, Cowser scored, Henderson to second.1–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 4Henderson reached on infield single to second, McCann scored, Cowser to second.1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4McCann doubled to left, Mateo scored.1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Wells homered to center (414 feet).1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Westburg grounded into fielder's choice to second, Santander scored on throwing error by second baseman Torres.0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 54%
- ML NYY -130 / BAL +110
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.5 pts
- NYY: Elo 45.7%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -119
- BAL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.4 – 4.1 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −15 | NYY: Nestor Cortes: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.75 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +30 Elo | BAL 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.52nd of 30 |
| 4th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.4 | Margin | +1.36th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 8th of 3011–6 | Road vs home | 10–65th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–16 | 17–11 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–13 | 13–10 |
| Underdog | 8–3 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 12–17–1 | 16–10–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 6–8 BAL in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 14.