Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Casey MizePitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Yankees- Anthony RizzoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Clarke SchmidtPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 4Keith hit sacrifice fly to right, Vierling scored.3–5
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–5
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 32–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging2–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 4Vierling tripled to right, Pérez scored.2–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 3Rizzo homered to right (411 feet), Soto scored and Judge scored.1–5
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 3Judge doubled to left, Volpe scored, Soto to third.1–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Stanton singled to right, Judge scored, Verdugo to third.1–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 31–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Greene homered to right (360 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 61%
- ML DET +150 / NYY -175
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- NYY: Elo 54.6%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- NYY -159
- DET +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.2 – 4.3 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +5 | DET: Casey Mize: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · NYY: Clarke Schmidt: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +32 Elo | NYY 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 59.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 59.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.615th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 3.53rd of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +1.16th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 4th of 3010–5 | Road vs home | 9–55th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–17 | 15–19 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–14 | 6–15 |
| Underdog | 11–3 | 9–4 |
| Overs–unders | 15–17 | 13–20–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 2–6 NYY in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.