St. Louis Cardinals at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Willson ContrerasBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Tigers- Matt VierlingBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kenta MaedaPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Vierling hit sacrifice fly to right, Pérez scored.1–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 4Contreras homered to center (433 feet).1–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 3Vierling homered to left center (414 feet), Carpenter scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Keith doubled to right, Vierling scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 51%
- ML STL -115 / DET -105
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.2 pts
- STL: Elo 43.9%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- STL -104
- DET +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.8 – 4.7 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | −10 | STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.67 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Kenta Maeda: team allows 0.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +43 Elo | DET 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.119th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.97th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.217th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 15th of 309–9 | Road vs home | 7–919th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–13 | 13–17 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–6 | 3–14 |
| Underdog | 11–7 | 10–3 |
| Overs–unders | 10–17–2 | 15–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 2–3 DET in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.