St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Brendan DonovanBatting1-5, 1 RBI
- Lance LynnPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Mets- Mark VientosBatting2-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jose QuintanaPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 11Vientos homered to center (404 feet), Bader scored.2–4
- 11Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–4
- 11Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 11Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball 12–2
- 11Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 11Bader singled to center, Stewart scored.2–2
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 11Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 11Donovan singled to right, Siani scored, Donovan thrown out at second.2–1
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 6Lindor homered to left center (388 feet).1–1
- 6Pitch 9 : Ball In Play1–1
- 6Pitch 8 : Ball 31–0
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 5Siani sacrificed, Winn scored, Siani to first on fielding error by third baseman Baty.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 56%
- ML STL +115 / NYM -140
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- NYM: Elo 56.4%, market 55.6%
- Fair odds
- NYM -125
- STL +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.0 – 4.5 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +8 | STL: Lance Lynn: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +45 Elo | NYM 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 55.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.419th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.8 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 16th of 308–7 | Road vs home | 6–818th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–11 | 12–13 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–6 | 4–8 |
| Underdog | 10–5 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders | 9–15–2 | 14–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 5–4 NYM in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.