New York Mets at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Starling MarteBatting3-4
- Luis SeverinoPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Giants- Mike YastrzemskiBatting2-3, 3 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Stewart grounded into fielder's choice to second, Alonso scored, Baty out at second.1–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 10–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–5
- 7Wade Jr. doubled to left, Yastrzemski scored.0–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–5
- 7Yastrzemski singled to right, Estrada scored.0–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 20–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 5Yastrzemski singled to center, Chapman scored and Estrada scored.0–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 5Estrada singled to left, Conforto scored, Estrada to second, Chapman to third.0–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SF 55%
- ML NYM +115 / SF -135
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- SF: Elo 52.3%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- SF -124
- NYM +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.3 – 3.7 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +12 | NYM: Luis Severino: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +16 Elo | SF 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.926th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.822nd of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Road vs home | 6–511th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–11 | 12–12 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–8 | 4–8 |
| Underdog | 7–3 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders | 12–10 | 13–10–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 4–4 SF in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.