New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- DJ StewartBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Dodgers- Chris TaylorBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Stewart singled to right, Lindor scored, Stewart to second.9–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–4
- 8Marte singled to center, Bader scored and McNeil scored, Nimmo thrown out at third.8–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 16–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–4
- 7Lindor homered to right center (396 feet), Marte scored.6–4
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 34–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 24–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 14–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 6Taylor singled to left, E. Hernández scored and Smith scored, Pages to second.4–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 34–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 24–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 5Ohtani singled to right, Pages scored, Taylor to second.4–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 24–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–1
- 4T. Hernández singled to right, Ohtani scored, T. Hernández to second.4–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 3Stewart hit sacrifice fly to center, Marte scored.4–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 3Alonso singled to right, Nimmo scored, Marte to third.3–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 32–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 64%
- ML NYM +165 / LAD -200
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- LAD: Elo 58.4%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- LAD -177
- NYM +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.6 – 4.9 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | −18 | NYM: Sean Manaea: team allows 0.90 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 0.89 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +59 Elo | LAD 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 62.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 61.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.09th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.514th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.611th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 7th of 304–2 | Road vs home | 8–57th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–9 | 9–12 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–8 | 9–11 |
| Underdog | 5–1 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 9–9 | 12–8–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 3–3 LAD in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 6.