New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Brandon NimmoBatting1-4
- Adrian HouserPitching4.0 IP, 8 ER, 3 K
Dodgers- Andy PagesBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tyler GlasnowPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 5Pages homered to center (413 feet), Smith scored and Muncy scored.0–10
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–10
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–7
- 5Smith doubled to left, Freeman scored and Ohtani scored.0–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 5Freeman doubled to right, Lux scored and Betts scored, Ohtani to third.0–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 5Betts singled to center, Pages scored, Lux to second.0–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Ohtani homered to right center (423 feet), Lux scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 69%
- ML NYM +210 / LAD -260
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.9 pts
- LAD: Elo 58.2%, market 69.1%
- Fair odds
- LAD -224
- NYM +224 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.6 – 5.4 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +19 | NYM: Adrian Houser: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAD: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 0.97 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +58 Elo | LAD 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 66.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 65.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 69.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 5.09th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 7th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 4th of 306–2 | Road vs home | 8–712th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–9 | 9–14 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 4–8 | 9–13 |
| Underdog | 7–1 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 11–9 | 14–8–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 5–3 LAD in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 8.