New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Starling MarteBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Jose ButtoPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting2-3, 3 RBI
- Gavin StonePitching3.1 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Lindor singled to left, Marte scored.6–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 15–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 6Freeman singled to center, Lux scored and Pages scored, Betts to second.5–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 6Marte homered to center (432 feet), Short scored and Nimmo scored.5–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 5Muncy hit sacrifice fly to right, Ohtani scored.2–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Marte singled to center, Wendle scored, Nimmo to second.2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 1Freeman singled to center, Betts scored, Ohtani to second.1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Lindor hit a ground rule double, Nimmo scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 62%
- ML NYM +155 / LAD -185
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.0 pts
- LAD: Elo 53.3%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -166
- NYM +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.2 – 5.3 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | −15 | NYM: Jose Butto: team allows 0.74 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · LAD: Gavin Stone: team allows 0.74 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +23 Elo | LAD 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 62.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 60.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 5.011th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 7th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +0.314th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 5th of 305–2 | Road vs home | 8–67th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–9 | 9–13 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–8 | 9–12 |
| Underdog | 6–1 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 10–9 | 13–8–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 4–3 LAD in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 7.