St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Paul GoldschmidtBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Adrian HouserPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Donovan hit sacrifice fly to right, Gorman scored, Winn to third.7–4
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 36–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 26–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 5Alonso homered to right center (403 feet), Nimmo scored.6–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–2
- 5Nimmo singled to left, Taylor scored and Baty scored.6–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–2
- 5Goldschmidt scored, Burleson to second on a balk.6–0
- 5Goldschmidt scored on a balk, Burleson to second on a balk.6–0
- 3Gorman doubled to right, Arenado scored, Gorman to third.5–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 1Winn singled to right, Goldschmidt scored, Burleson to second.4–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 1Goldschmidt doubled to center, Arenado scored and Contreras scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 1Arenado singled to right, Donovan scored, Contreras to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- STL 55%
- ML STL -135 / NYM +115
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.2 pts
- STL: Elo 46.0%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- STL -124
- NYM +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.0 – 3.5 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | +1 | STL: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.86 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Adrian Houser: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +28 Elo | NYM 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.317th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.315th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 16th of 307–7 | Road vs home | 6–718th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–11 | 12–12 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–6 | 4–8 |
| Underdog | 10–5 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders | 8–15–2 | 13–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 4–4 NYM in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 8.