St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Mets- Tomas NidoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose ButtoPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Martinez doubled to right, Lindor scored.4–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 5Nido homered to right center (386 feet).4–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 14–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 3Contreras homered to left center (445 feet).4–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Burleson homered to right center (412 feet), Arenado scored and Goldschmidt scored.3–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 61%
- Fair odds
- NYM -121
- STL +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.5 – 3.9 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | +12 | STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.92 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Jose Butto: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +79 Elo | NYM 61.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.710th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +0.413th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 21st of 306–7 | Road vs home | 6–614th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–11 | 12–12 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–6 | 4–8 |
| Underdog | 10–5 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders | 8–15–2 | 13–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 3–4 NYM in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.