New York Mets at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting4-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Giants- Tyler FitzgeraldBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sean HjellePitching2.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Wade Jr. scored on error, Conforto safe at first on throwing error by first baseman Alonso.8–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 28–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging8–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–1
- 9Lindor homered to right (400 feet), Nimmo scored.8–1
- 9Pitch 9 : Ball In Play8–1
- 9Pitch 8 : Ball 36–1
- 9Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 26–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 16–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 7Fitzgerald homered to left center (381 feet).6–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 16–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 5McNeil singled to right, Taylor scored, McNeil to second.6–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 25–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 5Taylor doubled to right, Baty scored and Alonso scored.5–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–0
- 4Taylor homered to center (406 feet).3–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 3Lindor homered to right center (382 feet), Nimmo scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 53%
- ML NYM +105 / SF -125
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- SF: Elo 50.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- SF -114
- NYM +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.9 – 4.1 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | −13 | NYM: Sean Manaea: team allows 0.83 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SF: Ryan Walker: team allows 0.64 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +6 Elo | SF 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.621st of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 13th of 306–5 | Road vs home | 7–59th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–12 | 13–12 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–8 | 5–8 |
| Underdog | 7–4 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders | 12–11 | 13–11–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 4–5 SF in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.