Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Maikel GarciaBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Tigers- Mark CanhaBatting2-4
- Reese OlsonPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Pasquantino hit sacrifice fly to center, Witt Jr. scored.8–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–0
- 9Witt Jr. tripled to right, Isbel scored and Garcia scored.7–0
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 15–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
- 9Garcia singled to left, Frazier scored and Velázquez scored, Isbel to second.5–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 9Isbel hit by pitch, Renfroe scored, Frazier to second, Velázquez to third.3–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 9Frazier hit by pitch, Perez scored, Velázquez to second, Renfroe to third.2–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 3Witt Jr. hit sacrifice fly to center, Frazier scored.1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 54%
- ML KC +110 / DET -130
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- DET: Elo 54.6%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -119
- KC +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.6 – 3.9 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | +9 | KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.76 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Reese Olson: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +32 Elo | DET 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.019th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.1 | Runs allowed | 3.86th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.5 | Margin | +0.316th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–5 | Road vs home | 4–723rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–10 | 11–14 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–4 | 1–11 |
| Underdog | 11–6 | 10–3 |
| Overs–unders | 8–17–1 | 12–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 3–10 DET in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 13.