Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting3-5
- Kevin GausmanPitching6.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting3-4, 2 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 5Witt Jr. doubled to left, Garcia scored and Isbel scored.2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Massey scored on error, Isbel safe at first on error by first baseman Guerrero Jr..2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 5Kirk hit sacrifice fly to center, Turner scored.2–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 3Turner reached on infield single to shortstop, Springer scored, Bichette to second.1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 52%
- ML TOR -120 / KC +100
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- TOR: Elo 51.6%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- TOR -109
- KC +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.3 – 4.2 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | +3 | TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.70 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +11 Elo | TOR 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.811th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.32nd of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +1.63rd of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 16th of 307–7 | Road vs home | 9–56th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–10 | 14–9 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–4 | 5–3 |
| Underdog | 5–6 | 9–6 |
| Overs–unders | 10–12–1 | 8–14–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 7–1 KC in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.