Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Daulton VarshoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Royals- Maikel GarciaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Isbel homered to right (409 feet).5–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 25–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 6Garcia homered to left (409 feet), Blanco scored.5–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 25–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 15–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking5–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 6Varsho homered to right (406 feet), Turner scored.5–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 13–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 3Bichette tripled to right, Kiner-Falefa, Biggio and Guerrero Jr. scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 52%
- ML TOR -120 / KC +100
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- TOR: Elo 52.5%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- TOR -109
- KC +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.6 – 4.4 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +5 | TOR: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Brady Singer: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +18 Elo | TOR 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.911th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.21st of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +1.73rd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 19th of 306–7 | Road vs home | 9–43rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–10 | 14–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–4 | 5–3 |
| Underdog | 5–6 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 10–11–1 | 8–13–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 6–1 KC in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.