Detroit Tigers at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Mark CanhaBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Rays- Jose CaballeroBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Caballero homered to center (416 feet).7–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking7–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 27–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–0
- 7Carpenter doubled to center, Canha scored.7–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging6–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 26–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 6Meadows homered to center (427 feet).6–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 25–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 5Canha singled to left, Rogers scored, Greene to second.5–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 5Greene reached on infield single to shortstop, Báez scored on throwing error by shortstop Caballero, Rogers safe at third on error.4–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 2Rogers reached on infield single to shortstop, Báez scored on throwing error by shortstop Caballero.3–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Báez singled to center, Vierling scored, Báez to second.2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Canha homered to left center (392 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 50%
- ML DET -110 / TB -110
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.6 pts
- TB: Elo 55.6%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- TB -100
- DET -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.8 – 3.8 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +1 | DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.68 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TB: Zack Littell: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +39 Elo | TB 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.020th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.822nd of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 4th of 308–3 | Road vs home | 7–713th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–13 | 9–14 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–11 | 5–12 |
| Underdog | 8–2 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 10–12 | 13–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 1–5 TB in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.