Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Kerry CarpenterBatting4-5, 2 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Twins- Trevor LarnachBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Pérez singled to center, Meadows scored, Canha to second.5–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–4
- 6Buxton doubled to left, Jeffers scored and Julien scored.4–4
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 34–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 24–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 6Carpenter singled to left, Pérez scored.4–2
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 24–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 14–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 3Carpenter singled to left, Pérez scored.3–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 33–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 23–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 3Pérez singled to left, Meadows scored.2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 1Larnach homered to right center (415 feet), Kirilloff scored.1–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 1Torkelson reached on infield single to second, Carpenter scored on throwing error by second baseman Julien, Torkelson out at second on runner's fielder's choice.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 58%
- ML DET +130 / MIN -155
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- MIN: Elo 58.3%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -140
- DET +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.1 – 3.9 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | +2 | DET: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.74 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +59 Elo | MIN 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 303.7 | Runs scored | 3.428th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −1.226th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–2 | Road vs home | 1–428th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–13 | 8–9 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–11 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 9–10 | 7–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 10–7 MIN in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 17.