Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Buddy KennedyBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Casey MizePitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Twins- Austin MartinBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Louis VarlandPitching2.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Martin homered to left (376 feet).6–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–1
- 9Torkelson hit sacrifice fly to right, Greene scored.6–0
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–0
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 25–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 15–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 7Torkelson doubled to center, Greene scored.5–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 24–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 3Kennedy homered to left (389 feet), Torkelson scored.4–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Kennedy hit sacrifice fly to center, Torkelson scored, Carpenter to third.2–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Carpenter singled to right, Greene scored, Torkelson to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 52%
- ML DET +100 / MIN -120
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- MIN: Elo 53.8%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -109
- DET +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.9 – 4.1 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −9 | DET: Casey Mize: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · MIN: Louis Varland: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +27 Elo | MIN 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 3.528th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −1.125th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Road vs home | 2–527th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–13 | 8–11 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–11 | 3–5 |
| Underdog | 7–2 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 10–11 | 8–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 11–8 MIN in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 19.